We’re recommending two plus-money wagers for tonight’s Western Conference clash. Thankfully, they can lean into their defensive shell to limit opponents’ chances and stay competitive. Goals will be harder to come by for the Avalanche as their production and output metrics balance over the coming games. Whether they run out of power play opportunities or their 53.9% conversion rate falls back toward the normal range, Nathan MacKinnon and company are heavy regression candidates. Nevertheless, they are averaging 4.3 goals per game, thanks to an abundance of special team scoring. The defending champs are averaging a below-average 8.0 high-danger chances per game, scoring on just 6.4% of their shots at five-on-five. The Avs have struck an unsustainable balance between production and output to start the 2022-23 campaign. Those underlying metrics will come in handy to offset the anticipated regression we’re expecting from their offense. The Avalanche get a lot of attention for their offensive abilities, and rightfully so, but they’ve been flying under the radar as an elite defensive team for the past couple of seasons. That may not result in more wins immediately, but it will help Seattle be more competitive over their coming games. Inevitably, teams fall on both ends of the PDO spectrum, but given the Kraken’s analytics success, we’re anticipating progression from the league’s newest franchise. Currently, the Kraken have the third-worst shooting percentage at 5.3% and a 90.4% save percentage, the 11th-worst, culminating in a 0.957 PDO. ![]() Moreover, their PDO has been one of the worst in the league for the second straight year. At five-on-five, Seattle has been out-scored 11-7, equaling an actual 38.9% goals-for rating. First, their actual goals-for rating is well below expected values. There are indicators that the Kraken are due for some puck luck. Seattle has an above-average 53.8% Corsi and 54.5% expected goals-for ratings at five-on-five, ranking seventh and ninth in the NHL, respectively. ![]() Early-season metrics indicate that they struggle to capitalize on opportunities, although the team remains analytically sound. ![]() Limited skill and ineffective goaltending have been the Kraken’s downfall since joining the league. DOWNLOAD NOW Kraken Due For Positive Regression
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